On this morning's Kremer & Abrams KXL show, Mark Abrams and fill-in host Jim Pasero were discussing the upcoming political races. Pasero indicated that he believed Republican candidates for Governor had a shot at winning, referencing a recent Rasmussen poll which suggested that the race for Oregon Governor wasn't exactly a lock for Democrats.
Au contraire, I said to myself. So I called into the show, got on the air, and pointed out that despite Republican enthusiasm, Oregon Republicans face an uphill battle because of their infrastructure shortcomings. I pointed out that the state races revolve around Multnomah County, and Republicans also have significant shortcomings in basic infrastructure and money. I said Republicans have no grassroots machine comparable to left wing groups such as the Bus Project and cannot come close to matching the money contributed by public employee unions.
Bam, just like that, they cut me off and I heard Jim Pasero on the radio disagreeing with me, saying that a Republican could carry Washington and Clackamas counties and overcome any Multnomah County result. Oh, really, Jim? Democrats in Multnomah County Democrats hold a 233,686 -68,825 lead in registered voters. In Washington County, Democrats hold a 32,000 - 8,100 lead in voter registration. Clackamas County's web site didn't provide voter registration numbers, but the large voter registration lead by Democrats will be difficult to overcome by any Republican candidate for Governor, regardless of who the Democrat candidate is.
When you add in the permanent grassroots infrastructure provided by the Bus Project and the public employee unions, combined with union money, any statewide race for Republicans is, unfortunately, mostly a done deal for Democrats. The story is not so bleak for Republicans in Oregon House and Senate races on a district by district basis. But that's another story.
I usually agree with you, Jim Pasero. But not this time.