Why Obama Won

The Bush drag on Republican candidates nationwide cannot be overestimated. The continued war in Iraq, his increase of government spending, his poor performance during Hurricane Katrina, his lazy and cynical attempt to nominate Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, his attempts to give amnesty to illegal aliens- all these issues contributed to a frustration of and alienation from Bush's conservative base.

More important however, is the fact that after the 2006 midterm elections, Bush lost his 6 year streak of being able to paint his own image. After the losses of 2006, Democrats were increasingly able to define the image of Bush in their terms. Rule #1 of politics-define your image or your opponent will define it for you.

In spite of this, John McCain still ran a close race and Obama barely closed the deal nationwide. The difference in this race? Obama's campaign was more disciplined, more organized, more energized, and it stayed on message.

Obama's ground game was superlative in its organization and the use of new technology. For instance, you could sign on to his web site and download a walking list or a phone list of your neighbors, complete with a script, without having to contact a real person at some campaign office. His web site instructed people to immediately report the results of their talks/phone calls with their neighbors, which you could report on the same web site. Obama's campaign had the ability to get instant feedback on the results of contacts with individual households nationwide. Obama's campaign reduced the distance between candidate and voter to the space between two neighbor's homes.

Obama completely co-opted the Republican message of lower taxes. Voters believed Obama was more likely to lower their taxes than McCain. And voters believed this because Obama said it hundreds, of times. He had message discipline. It was pathetic, in the last month of the campaign, to watch McCain scramble to find a message that would give him some traction.

The Republican noise machine continually played up Ayers, Wright, etc after the October economic meltdown. The voters in the center didn't care. Voters in the center don't care about ideology. (As a matter of fact, they move away from ideologues, which is something Oregon Republican activists haven't figured out yet. Voters act in their own self interests, not what someone tells them their self interests should be. But that's a topic for another time.)The issue in the 2008 Presidential election became the economy, the economy, the economy. The McCain camp didn't have a coherent financial message.

Post-election polls show the U.S. is still center-right in disposition. But in this election, more voters though Obama could be trusted at the nation's helm. I voted for John McCain. But the will of the voters must be respected. So my hat is off to Obama for winning this election. He is President-elect. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. None of the partisan "he's not my President" will be seen on this blog. I may disagree with his politics, but I respect the office.

Triumph At The Republican National Convention

This Ain't No Kitchen, It's A Blast Furnace

Although post-convention polls have predicted the result of Presidential elections only about half the time, the tremendous bounce gained after the Republican National Convention shows a new enthusiasm about Republican candidate John McCain's candidacy (See Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama - USATODAY.com).

However, I believe the real difference in this election could be the candidate's reaction to negative attacks. Let's face it. Both sides of this Presidential race have engaged in questionable and negative campaign tactics. This is part of the game of national politics. We hear that Barack Obama is a Muslim, or that his birth certificate was forged. And we hear that Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin's daughter was actually the mother of Palin's new baby. You can't turn on the radio or TV without reading, listening to, or watching this increasingly negative aspect of every Presidential campaign.

I detest this kind of politicking even though it will always be with us. But what matters to me is not so much the poison that hatches from campaigns and their supporters. What matters to me is how each candidate responds to the poison darts thrown their way. Who can handle the heat in the electoral kitchen that actually is more blast furnace than kitchen? The job: President of the United States, arguably the most powerful elected position in the world. If a candidate poorly handles pressure during the rough and tumble of a nasty Presidential campaign, what does that say about their ability to handle that 3am phone call and decision making where millions of human lives may be at stake?

For example, the recent Atlantic magazine article "The Front-Runner's Fall" gave this summary of the reasons for Hillary Clinton's failure in the Democratic Primaries:

Clinton ran on the basis of managerial competence—on her capacity, as she liked to put it, to “do the job from Day One.” In fact, she never behaved like a chief executive, and her own staff proved to be her Achilles’ heel. What is clear from the internal documents is that Clinton’s loss derived not from any specific decision she made but rather from the preponderance of the many she did not make. Her hesitancy and habit of avoiding hard choices exacted a price that eventually sank her chances at the presidency.

Is it fair to project the conclusions reached by the author of the Atlantic magazine article into a prediction of Clinton's competence for the Presidency? Yes, it's fair to do so, especially given the article's use of primary sources and documents from within the Clinton campaign. In the heat of battle, Clinton failed to perform as a Chief Executive. If she couldn't keep her own staff on the same page and was unable or unwilling to make executive decisions, how would she handle decision making as President?

And what of the executive ability of candidates Obama and McCain? Who works better under pressure? Which candidate has had experience making decisions under pressure? Which candidate has a track record of accomplishment? No candidate is perfect- everyone makes mistakes, some of them whoppers. But how did the candidates respond and/or learn from their mistakes?

No matter who wins in November, there's something to be said for the blast furnace that is American Presidential politics. Ugly, yes. But it's been proven to be a good winnowing out tool. As for the November election "Winnowing in" the best candidate? Only future history will tell us.

Young Republicans Look For New Leadership

Young Republicans, Blue About the Prospects Ahead - washingtonpost.com

Beware Of Politicians Who Promise A Free Lunch

Left wing politicians keep trying to push us toward socialism in the form of programs such as regional urban planning and arbitrary urban growth boundaries, universal health care, tax credits for unearned income, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies,and carbon cap and trade programs. Many voters in Oregon think all these programs are great ideas. For those of you who think socialism is such a great idea, I have a question for you: Do you know how to catch wild pigs?

You catch wild pigs by finding a suitable place in the woods and putting corn on the ground. The pigs find it and begin to come everyday to eat the free corn. When they are used to coming every day, you put a fence down one side of the place where they are used to coming. When they get used to the fence, they begin to eat the corn again and you put up another side of the fence. They get used to that and start to eat again. You continue until you have all four sides of the fence up with a gate in the last side.

The pigs that are used to the free corn start to come through the gate to eat, and then you slam the gate on them and catch the whole herd. Suddenly the wild pigs have lost their freedom. They run around and around inside the fence, but they are caught. Soon they go back to eating the free corn. They are so used to it that they have forgotten how to forage in the woods for themselves, so they accept their captivity.

Left wing politicians are fighting hard to push us toward socialism and keep spreading the free corn out in the form of programs such as universal health care, tax credits for unearned income, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies, and carbon cap and trade programs, while we continue to lose our freedoms - just a little at a time.

Oregon's voters should always remember there is no such thing as a free Lunch!

If you see that all of this wonderful government 'help' is a problem confronting the future of democracy in America, listen closely to politicians running for office this year. Listen closely to what candidates are promising you - just maybe, you will be able to tell who is about to slam the gate on America.

I can't take credit for this story- it was e-mailed to me by an acquaintance, without a source for the author. But the story itself rings true.

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have." - - -Thomas Jefferson

Why Doesn't Hillary Stop Whining About Sexism?

From Peggy Noonan's latest column:
"Meir and Gandhi and Mrs. Thatcher suffered through the political downside of their sex and made the most of the upside. Fair enough. As for this week's Clinton complaints, I imagine Mrs. Thatcher would bop her on the head with her purse. Mrs. Gandhi would say "That is no way to play it." Mrs. Meir? "They said I was the only woman in the cabinet and the only one with -- well, you know. I loved it."
Read the rest here.

Reality TV Night: Elections, Hells Kitchen, Dancing w/Stars

What a night for reality TV! Last night's results show for Oregon's primary season brought few surprises. My very own House District 49 was as close as I expected on the Democrat side, with Nick Kahl ahead of Barbara Kyle by about 300 votes. You'd think $78,000 would buy more than a 300 vote lead. I guess those campaign dollars don't stretch as far as they used to.

Next door in House District 52, Matt Lindland's victory over fellow Republican Phyllis Thiemann was an interesting turn of events. Way to go, Elaine Franklin.

I was surprised that Republican Mike Erickson beat Kevin Mannix by such a large margin in the Oregon CD 5 race. I'm glad I don't live in that district. I didn't care for the ugly campaigning from either candidate. No, thank you.

In the Republican Presidential Primary, John McCain won handily. But you know what? I voted for Ron Paul. I knew Paul was off in the fringe, but I couldn't bring myself to vote for a DEMOCRAT in the Republican primary race. I might have to hold my nose and vote for McCain in November. I really haven't made up my mind. McCain is running as a Democrat, which he's entitled to do. But I don't have to vote for him, no sir.

Of course, Obama Gantry beat Hillary by a wide margin here in Oregon. This isn't news. No man bites dog story here.

Much more entertaining was the final results show for ABC's Dancing With The Stars. The Mrs. loves this show. I watched most of it with her. Very entertaining. Maybe they should have Presidential Candidate Dancing With The Stars. Naah. I just had a terrible mental visual image of Presidential candidates in skimpy outfits. Think about it.

My favorite reality show this season is Hells Kitchen. I'm trying to memorize all of the insults dished up by Chef Ramsey. "Shut it down, you donkey". I love that one the best. Except when I try to imitate Chef Ramsey, I sound more like Shrek. This is actually a scary show. Maybe I don't want to know that restaurant chefs sometimes cut off the tips of their fingers and they can't find the fingertip amongst the risotto.

Oops I almost forgot. American Idol's final showdown between the two Davids was tonight. We watched a few minutes. But hey! I don't care about this show! I haven't listened to top 40, hip/hop, country/western, or alternative radio for years! I couldn't tell you what's popular right now. But I can tell you that when I watched the American Idol contestants slaughter Beatles and Andrew Lloyd Webber and Neil Diamond songs earlier in the season, I wasn't thinking to my self this could be heaven or this could be hell. Nope. I was thinking that American Idol has finally jumped the shark.

(By the way, 58% of voters think Hell's Kitchen hasn't jumped the shark yet. But over 50% of voters think American Idol jumped the shark on day one. Interesting, eh?)

What about Hillary? Obama? John McCain? Have the jumped the shark yet? If so, when did they make the leap?

Pigs Fly: I Agree With Code Pink About Something!

Remember the pledge made by the Democrats in 2006? Remember Nancy Pelosi's promise to end the war in Iraq with her new Democrat majority? Pelosi lied. Soldiers died.

Democrat House leaders in Washington D.C. are putting the final touches on the largest spending bill for the Iraq war yet. Not only will this bill fund the Iraq war through the end of President Bush's term, it will fund the war another six months into the new President's term.

According to the San Francisco Chronicle,"The bill is expected to provide $108 billion that the White House has requested for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lawmakers who are drafting it say it also will include a so-called bridge fund of $70 billion to give the new president several months of breathing room before having to ask Congress for more money."


The Democrats could cut off the funding spigot for the Iraq war now. But they won't. Because they are a bunch of hypocrites. The Democrats are piling all of the blame on President Bush for the continuation of the Iraq war, which is total baloney. The Democrats could stop the war immediately, but instead they're going to extend the war long enough to tie the new President' 's hands for six months!

Code Pink agrees with me. the Democrats are a bunch of lying hypocrites. According to the SF Chronicle,
"But anti-war activists say Democrats are being disingenuous by claiming to oppose the war while also preparing to give the president even more war funding than he requested."They are the biggest hypocrites in the world," said Medea Benjamin, the San Francisco-based founder of the anti-war group CodePink. "They want to paint the Republicans as warmongers and they want to keep funding the war, and they think we don't see through this?"

Democrats, don't give me your tired song and dance about President Bush. Democrats in Congress are out-doing him They promised to end the war. Pelosi lied. Soldiers died. Isn't that how the sloganeering comes from the left?

Don't get me wrong. I believe a sudden pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq would cause a genocide the likes of which the Middle East has never experienced. The U.S. has to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future to prevent massive bloodshed and slaughter. But it's time to call out the Democrats on their hypocrisy. They're not going to end the war any time soon, either.

You Are Who You Associate With: Obama Too?

As our kids grew up, we had several conversations with them about what their choice of friends said about them. We gave the "You are who you associate with" talk many times. If they associated with malcontents, troublemakers, drug users, then that's who they would probably become. We told them that people headed for trouble had a tendency to drag people down with them.

However, if they associated with positive, friendly, confident, forward-looking people, that's where they would gravitate. We told our kids that people with positive, friendly, helpful, motivated attitudes had a tendency to help others go in that direction. We asked our kids: What direction do you want your life to go? Will your friends help or hurt you get where you want to go, and who you want to be? I think every parent has had this kind of conversation with their children.

Which brings me to Barack Obama and his choice of two particular friends, Bernadine Dohrn and Bill Ayers. These two were domestic terrorists in the 1960's and 1970's. These two friends of Obama are unrepentant of their violent actions to this day. Take a look at on excerpt from this article at Powerline Blog:

Last night, in The Friends of Barack Obama, Part 1 I reviewed Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, who helped to kick off Obama's first political campaign and with whom Obama's campaign says he has a "friendly" relationship. Ayers and Dohrn were domestic terrorists in the 1960s and 1970s, and they are as radical now as they ever were, as evidenced by their own words. Obama emerged from the far-left fringe of Chicago politics, and his relationship with Ayers and Dohrn, like his relationship with spiritual mentor Jeremiah Wright, raises important questions about Obama's own political beliefs.

Obama has defended his relationship with Ayers and Dohrn by saying that Ayers did "reprehensible" things forty years ago, when Obama was eight years old. He says that Ayers and Dohrn are now respectable, mainstream figures in Chicago. But the reality is quite different; they, like Wright, are anything but "mainstream" in their views of America. The audio clips in which Ayers and Dohrn reveal their still-radical views were uncovered by Guy Benson, a recent college graduate who works for radio station WYLL in Chicago.

Powerline has audio clips you can download. (I've linked to three of these clips below). Listen to Ayers and Dohrn themselves describe the following:

Clip 1: "In 1970, the Weather Underground's top leadership was forced to go into hiding after three fellow weathermen accidentally blew themselves up while building an explosive devise in New York City. The bomb was intended to target a military dance at Fort Dix, New Jersey. While living in the shadows, Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn participated in a series of short films. In this clip, Ayers explains how living underground served as a convenient "base" for his group's destructive plots."

Clip 2. William Ayers Now: - Ayers 2007 rebellion and Mao
Ayers addresses a Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) reunion in November 2007. He favorably quotes Chairman Mao's right-hand man while discussing the past and future roles of revolution."

Clip 3. William Ayers Now: Ayers on leftist strategy
Addressing the SDS reunion in 2007, Ayers outlines the Left's strategy for the future, which requires them to "speak in a language that is large, and generous, and encompassing…and then we have to act." (One wonders if a certain Left-blessed presidential candidate with a nice smile and a vague mantra of "change" might fit the bill perfectly.)

There are more clips at Powerline blog. Get over there and listen to them. Make up your own minds. Is it true? Are we truly who we associate with? What does Obama's choice of friends say about who he is as a Presidential candidate? Decide for yourself, and comment here if you wish.

Fainting Obamas, Shrill Hillary, Or "Conservative" McCain

I'm getting a kick out of the fainting Obama fans. Are they real or fake? Either way, kind of scary, huh? (Disclaimer: my sister once fainted at a Monkees concert, but she was, what, 10 years old.) I'm also getting a touch in the funny bone from Hillary's claim that Obama lacks "substance". Because we all know that Hillary's legislative record is full of accomplishments, and her health care plan from 1993 was a total success.

But I get those can't stop breathing, it hurts so much because I'm laughing so hard guffaws from John McCain's claims of his conservatism.

I'm getting nostalgic for the old days of "pick the least harmful candidate". Remember Nixon v. McGovern? Nixon v. Kennedy? Carter v. Ford? Clinton v. Bush I? Quisp v. Quake? Dallas v. Dynasty? Joe Montana v. John Elway? Mary Ann v. Ginger? "Lost In Space" v. "Land Of The Giants"? The Jackson 5 v. The Osmonds? Ford v. Chevy? Light rail v. the Mt. Hood Freeway? Jay Leno v. Dave Letterman? Skippy v. Jiffy?

Politics, TV shows, cereal, cars. Look at all the claims of superiority. It's like they say in Texas. "The bigger the belt buckle, the smaller the ranch."

Words to vote by.

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

Changes overwhelm the Presidential candidates. . .

Rudy Giuliani Says It's Not a Vacuum Cleaner, It's An Air Filter!

Presidential race? What presidential race? You'd think the Democrat and Republican candidates for Prez of the U.S. were actually exchanging cannon fire right here in Oregon. It's the main topic of conversation. But the conversation, and the distant campaign cannon fire, have been going on for so long, it's just noise.

Like the sound of that train that goes through town three miles away. You know the train is noisy, long, heavy, and powerful. You hear it in the distance, but only if you really listen for it, because you're so used to your daily background noise in your own neighborhood.

I've been concentrating my "train watching" on the Sunday morning shows. Meet the Press. This Week. Fox News Sunday. Face the Nation. Did you see Tim Russert on Sunday, making Hillary squirm? And how about Rudy Giuliani's exchange with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday?

"WALLACE: But what happened, for instance, in New Hampshire where you did seem to be making an effort in November? You did pour $3 million in advertising into it and then pulled out. Why did you make that decision?

GIULIANI: Well, what happened in New Hampshire is real simple. John McCain won a very good victory. He campaigned there for quite some time. He turned it all around. He won a big victory in New Hampshire.

WALLACE: But why did you pull out in November or December before he won a victory?

GIULIANI: We didn't pull out. We didn't pull out. What we did was we decided -- I can't remember exactly when it was -- January, December -- at some point we decided that we had to put our principal focus on Florida, that that was the best strategy for us, for all the reasons that I pointed out to you."

There must be something in the water at those Sunday talk shows. Every time a Russert or a Wallace asks a politician, "You're a pyramid", the politicians ALWAY respond with, "It's not a pyramid. It's a triangle. It's not a vacuum cleaner. It's an air purification system."

Rudy, baby, you pulled out of New Hampshire, $3 million dollars poorer, with nothing to show for it! It's ok, take it like a man! It's not a vacuum cleaner, it's a humbling admission of defeat!

"Me" Speech Reference Score: Hillary 14, Obama 2

Here are random samples of recent Hillary and Obama speeches or interviews in New Hampshire, with a count of self-directed references and other-directed references. Although based on just a few speeches, the difference is striking, and may be an indication of what's right with Obama's campaign and what's wrong with Hillary's campaign.

Hillary Total: "I" or "Me" references:14. "Other" references: 3.
Obama Total: "I" references: 2; "You," "We" or "Our" references: 23.

“I couldn’t do it if I just didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do. I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don’t want to see us fall backwards. This is very personal for me — it’s not just political, it’s not just public. I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don’t want to see us fall backwards. This is very personal for me — it’s not just political, it’s not just public.”
- Hillary Clinton at the coffee shop Monday morning.

“It was just so touching when this woman said, ‘Well, what about you?’” Mrs. Clinton said. “I just don’t think about that, I think about what I can do for other people I have spent a lifetime trying to help others; I’m very other-directed. That’s maybe why people don’t get me in the political world.”
- Hillary Clinton during an interview Monday night.

Hillary Word Count :

"I" or "I'm = 11

"Me"= 3

"Others" or "other" = 3

TOTALS:
14 self-directed, and 3 other-directed references. Hmmmm.


Contrast this with Obama, her opponent:

"We started something on Thursday, but it was just the start. If we cast aside our fear and cast aside our cynicism and we stand up for what we genuinely believe, this is our moment, this is our time, you can feel it, you can see it."- Obama at a New Hampshire Rally on Saturday.

I hope all of you are not only going to the polls yourselves tomorrow," he said, "but also that you're going to be grabbing some people and telling them we are about to make history here and you want to be a part of it. You don't want to be looking back five years from now and saying the American people really rose up and changed America, and I was sitting on the couch."

Trying to make his victory not look too inevitable, he continued, "Everybody understands that we got a lot of work to do, we got one more day. If we follow through then I think tomorrow could just continue to build what we started seeing in Iowa. What's most important about that is we doubled turnout, young people voted like they never voted before. We got Independents and Republicans to cross over voting in a Democrtaic caucus. This is the start of a working majority. This is how we're going to change politics and change America."

"You"= 5
"We" or "Our"= 18
"I"= 2

Obama Word Count Totals:
23 Other-Directed, 2 self-directed

My Preferred Presidential Candidate is. . .WHO?

According to a Presidential preference survey at selectsmart.com, my ideal Presidential candidate is Tom Tancredo. I must not be current on my 2008 Presidential politics, because I barely recognize his name. I don't think I'm alone there.

1. Theoretical Ideal Candidate (100 %)
2. Tom Tancredo (75 %)
3. Mitt Romney (70 %)
4. Duncan Hunter (69 %)
5. Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) (64 %)
6. Sam Brownback (64 %)
7. John McCain (59 %)
8. Chuck Hagel (not announced) (59 %)
9. Tommy Thompson (57 %)
10. Mike Huckabee (55 %)
11. Rudolph Giuliani (54 %)
12. Newt Gingrich (not announced) (49 %)
13. Fred Thompson (not announced) (48 %)
14. Kent McManigal (campaign suspended) (48 %)
15. Ron Paul (47 %)
16. Michael Bloomberg (not announced) (44 %)
17. Christopher Dodd (30 %)
18. Bill Richardson (29 %)
19. Al Gore (not announced) (24 %)
20. Joseph Biden (24 %)
21. Wesley Clark (not announced) (24 %)
22. Dennis Kucinich (23 %)
23. Hillary Clinton (22 %)
24. Barack Obama (22 %)
25. Mike Gravel (18 %)
26. John Edwards (16 %)
27. Alan Augustson (campaign suspended) (11 %)
28. Elaine Brown (9 %)